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Hmmm... Part II

12/17/2020

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In continuing my series (???) on terrible home remodeling decisions, I present you with this gem I came across on the BRRRR Invest Facebook group:
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As incredibly stupid as that looks, it would have taken a lot of time and energy to put together. And it was done well for it's worth.

So much time and craftsmanship for such madness. While Donald Trump is still in office, I should probably end this with a SAD!

...But it kind of reminds of this house we bought from a bank after they foreclosed on the guy who I presume was a meth head. I mean, this is a lot of work. And yes, those are all those little wood pieces you find in wood pallets and what not:
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And no, that's not the standard way to do drywall. Nor is this the standard way to make a shed:
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Finally Some Unequivocally Good News (hopefully)

12/16/2020

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With all the partisan bitterness interspersed around this never-ending pandemic and its concurrent economy-destroying lockdowns, we've been at a loss for good news for quite some time.

While this study is only regarding mice, it may be that we end this godawful year with some unequivocally good news. From the University of California San Francisco,
​Just a few doses of an experimental drug can reverse age-related declines in memory and mental flexibility in mice, according to a new study by UC San Francisco scientists. The drug, called ISRIB, has already been shown in laboratory studies to restore memory function months after traumatic brain injury (TBI), reverse cognitive impairments in Down Syndrome, prevent noise-related hearing loss, fight certain types of prostate cancer, and even enhance cognition in healthy animals.
​
In the new study, published Dec. 1, 2020, in the open-access journal eLife, researchers showed rapid restoration of youthful cognitive abilities in aged mice, accompanied by a rejuvenation of brain and immune cells that could help explain improvements in brain function.
Of course that's a long way from being a cure for humans, but it's quite encouraging.

I would definitely be a huge game changer if brain injuries and age-related cognitive declines could be reversed or even stopped entirely. Hopefully something big will come of this research. We shall see.
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New BiggerPockets Article: The No. 1 Thing You Can Do To Improve Everything in Your Life

12/16/2020

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Spoilers: It's sleep.

Sleep more and sleep better.

That's the topic of my new article for BiggerPockets, which admittedly, doesn't have a lot to do with real estate investing. But regardless, better sleep will improve every part of your life, and if part of your life is investing in real estate, than that part will be improved too.

The article reviews the great book Why We Sleep by Matthew Walker. Page one basically explains why this is so important,
“Two-thirds of adults throughout all developed nations fail to obtain the recommended eight hours of nightly sleep.
​
“I doubt you are surprised by this fact, but you may be surprised by the consequences. Routinely sleeping less than six or seven hours a night demolishes your immune system, more than doubling your risk of cancer. Insufficient sleep is a key lifestyle factor determining whether or not you will develop Alzheimer’s disease. Inadequate sleep—even moderate reductions for just one week—disrupts blood sugar levels so profoundly that you would be classified as pre-diabetic. Short sleeping increases the likelihood of your coronary arteries becoming blocked and brittle, setting you on a path toward cardiovascular disease, stroke, and congestive heart failure. Fitting Charlotte Brontë’s prophetic wisdom that ‘a ruffled mind makes a restless pillow,’ sleep disruption further contributes to all major psychiatric conditions, including depression, anxiety and suicidality.”
So make sleep a priority folks! (But while awake, check out my article. Thanks.)
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Many on the Left Don't Realize How Radical They Are

12/15/2020

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So I had this absurd conversation on Facebook with this Leftist who is always in muh mentions. This guy has said the statue of Thomas Jefferson should come down and defended the softcore pedophile porn movie Cuties, but somehow thinks it's just everyone else who's being unreasonable. My first post was just mocking the failed experiment of CHAZ and the new one in Portland some nutjob leftists are setting up.
Mainly I was just noting it was nice moderate liberals could finally act that way now that they didn't have to countersignal Trump as Ted Wheeler promised not to tolerate "RHAZ." (Although Wheeler isn't that moderate, but he did beat a communist, so there's that.)

First I got a response from a hardcore, but still reasonable liberal,
Id like to think moderate republicans could act as such too, but at least in my social circle, they all changed their party affiliations because of Trump.
The fanatical liberal then chimed in "There are no moderate Republicans." This seemed so obviously false I (unwisely) chose to chime in,
​As far as politics goes, both sides are moving further apart, which is a bad sign. but it would seem the left has moved a bit further away from the center than the right. The chart below is from Pew.

After all, in LA, illegal immigrants (err, undocumented workers) have been elected to public office while members of congress and the Senate have called to abolish ICE which is at least as over-the-top as the "muslim ban" (which as implemented was a terrible law, but not a muslim ban).

But coming back to this, I don't think a conservative mayor in a conservative city would have ever let a fascist or neo-confederate "South is rising again" autonomous zone in their city for a day. Seattle's mayor let it go on for well over a month.

As far as politics goes, both sides are moving further apart, which is a bad sign. but it would seem the left has moved a bit further away from the center than the right. The chart below is from Pew.

After all, in LA, illegal immigrants (err, undocumented workers) have been elected to public office while members of congress and the Senate have called to abolish ICE which is at least as over-the-top as the "muslim ban" (which as implemented was a terrible law, but not a muslim ban).
​
But coming back to this, I don't think a conservative mayor in a conservative city would have ever let a fascist or neo-confederate "South is rising again" autonomous zone in their city for a day. Seattle's mayor let it go on for well over a month.
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Thankfully, the fanatical liberal was there to enlighten me.
cool graph.

Let me explain to you the reality though.

The nation has moved much further to the right the last 40 years. Things like the New Deal, Great Society, Medicare, Medicaid, Voting Rights Act, etc, all these things are looked down upon. The Right is trying their best to systematically take away voting rights, take away women's right, normalize right wing fanaticism.

Now "undocumented" worker has been elected to a public office. The one person I've heard about was APPOINTED to a BOARD that relates to immigration. She's an attorney! She was brought here by her parents when she was like 12 years old. What's your expectation? Why is this an issue?

As for the Conservative Mayor argument, you must be kidding. Have you lived in the south? They don't need a zone: IT'S THE STATE.

You think shooting a dude and "standing your ground" is moving left? Do you use unions with any power? Do you see union membership on the rise? Do you see environmentalists really getting their way (that it's even a left issue is super fucking embarrassing)? Do you see corporations LOSING POWER? Or do you see a corporation being given the rights of a man?
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Not sure what you're looking at, but the world has MOVED RIGHT because of the courts and the deference to corporations. Liberals are fighting for human rights, and it's not because they've gained them. Conservatives are fighting for making sure someone with less than them doesn't get more.
Why do I feel the need to argue with such idiocy? I don't know, but I do I guess. My response,
Woah bud, thanks for explaining reality to me.

Anyways, the idea that conservatism is just being a prostitute to corporations is, well, kind of a caricature. Indeed, both parties seem to be prostitutes to corps (with Republicans being especially whorish to oil, Dems especially whorish to Silicon Valley and both exceptionally whorish to Wall Street). Both bases tend to be anti-Wall Street. And the populist right is definitely anti-Wall Street. So what does it mean to be moving toward the right if that "right" is populist?

And all the South is a "conservative autonomous zone " (including Georgia and Virginia, which went for Biden). Uh huh... But California, Oregon and Washington are just moderate, right?

I would say things are moving in three directions simultaneously; 1) more establishment power, 2) increased local partisanship, 3) cultural leftward shift. There is no general shift to the right.

As far as establishment power; this is obvious. NSA and CIA spying run amok, endless wars, massive consolidation of wealth in Silicon Valley/Wall Street, etc. I've seen opposition to this across the spectrum and Trump even broke the mold by harshly criticizing some of this ('Iraq war was the worst mistake in US history" etc.) Populism itself is generally anti-corporate after all. (Although I think Trump just used populist rhetoric and governed like Bush.)

Major entitlement programs are not under threat (other than solvency). The Republicans want to get rid of Obamacare, not Medicare. That's the reactionary idea of going back to 2009. Bush's attempt to partially privatize social security went nowhere and was pretty much dropped. As far as attacks on voting rights, I don't know. There seems to be so much bullshit here with gerrymandering and lawfare nonsense. I will say that ballot harvesting is ripe for abuse. It also didn't seem like anyone had any trouble voting in 2020.

- But just go down the issues:
- Gay Marriage: Legal and Republicans have pretty much accepted it (under Trump no less)
- Transgenderism: Not even on the table 10 years ago, now we're "transitioning" 7 year olds.
- Immigration: Record levels, mainstream won't even call illegal immigration "illegal immigration" anymore. Trump made a few cuts around the edges but Biden will undo those.
- Diversity Stuff: All sorts of government, corporate and university initiatives
- Eduction: Pretty much dominated by woke, postmodernist nonsense
- Marketing: Woke capitalism is about as annoying and shallow as it gets.
- Environmentalism: Lots of subsidies to green tech and grants but only mild progress on legislation. That being said, the main stuff people care about (clean rivers, air, etc.) was mostly taken care of decades ago. The issues now are more abstract and "out there in the distance" i.e. global warming and soil depletion
- Christianity: Fading in importance both politically and civically
- Drugs: Many states have legalized marijuana, the Congress voted to legalize it and Oregon decriminalized drugs.
- Criminal Justice Reform: The bipartisan agreement to get hard on crime (which most black leaders also approved of by the way. Now there's actually bipartisan agreement we have to go the other way and Trump actually took steps in that direction
- Government spending: About what it was in 1950 as a % of GDP
- Federal Taxes: The top tax bracket is about what it was in mid-80s
- The Deficit: A Bipartisan trainwreck (although I blame the Republicans more)

It's true that unions are down and inequality up. And part of that is the pro "business" Republicans. Much of that was driven by globalization, which was a bipartisan consensus. And much by technology's ability to consolidate wealth, which just hasn't been addressed. But another part of it is because the Democrats seemed to give up on the working class and focus exclusively on wokeness and hating Russia.

The rest is red and blue states moving further apart. So gun laws get stricter in blue states and looser in red. Abortion laws get stricter in blue states and looser in red [backwards, sorry], etc. This is more a sign of the increasing partisan divide in the country that I don't see getting better anytime soon.
​
Sorry for the length. This post really got away from me.
It takes a rather enfeebled mind to believe that someone pointing out trends thereby approves of them, or in this case opposes them. I oppose some of this (like "transitioning" seven year olds) and support some (like legalizing marijuana). But any challenge (even observational) of leftwing hegemony is heresy. His unhinged, semi-coherent response:
Holy shiz, I have to stop you right from the jump!

Gay Marriage? Why is that a "liberal" concept?

Transgenderism? Same question.
​

Diversity "Stuff"? AGAIN, Why is this LIBERAL?

"Eduction" - love that you spelled that wrong, so I'll let it sit.

Christianity - Republicans don't even care about it. They voted for Trump. They don't care about Jesus - they care about cults. No one is stopping anyone from being a Christian. Sorry it doesn't dominate our life, like in the classrooms, or in the LABS or in the HOSPITALS. Bush made it so you can consider Christianity with "Faith based initiatives." There's practically a Christianity test to a congress person in 40+ American States.

Drugs - Sure, that's liberal. Thank goodness. But Republicans only supported drug reform when White kids started using oxycontin, etc. They never gave any fucks when it wasn't their kids, or the kid from the church. This gets back to them only really give fucks about their thing, which was an original point. This is also the "criminal justice" thing. So, yeah, this isn't a Democrat/Liberal wind. It's Republicans getting on board because it helps their constituents now. You must not remain Crack cocaine vs cocaine.

Government spending? See WARS. See deficits under all presidents. Tell me what you come up with. Yes, you got it right, Republicans. Liberal programs are designed to help. What are Republican programs for? Wait, what are their programs?

Yes, red and blue further apart. Red pretending they can't own machine guns and show up at Governor's mansion. Blue upset innocent people get killed and rightwing groups raise funds to help that person, aka, The George Zimmerman Effect.

Love ya.
This guy later accused a conservative who jumped in of lacking empathy because he made fun of equating cutting a kid's penis off with "human rights. 

A friend pointed out to me during this that there is absolutely no point to argue with such idiots. It's just a mental suck. And it is. It's infuriating. "Why is gay marriage a liberal issue?" Uhhh, because it has been you fucking idiot. Why is "preserving our God-given right to bear arms" a conservative one. Because it has been.

You just have to let it go. Indeed, I've gone round and round with him on Hillary Clinton's emails (he's always the one who brings them up) and he always talks about Colin Powell. I've repeatedly shown that excuse fails, but he just ignores it and brings it up again. He did the same thing here with the crack/cocaine difference in sentencing. Black leaders supported that discrepancy as did white leaders as the book I referenced showed. But just ignore evidence and ragepost appears to be the far left modus operandi these days.

My glib response.
Good God David this is such shill partisan hackery it's embarrassing. I think I'm gonna go ahead and disengage before wasting anymore going around in circles on this.
Then came the kicker:
Sorry to tell you, but the things you're claiming are "liberal" ideas are quite often just human rights.
​
Check the most recent SCOTUS decision on religion. Y'all be fine.
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While this conversation wasn't enlightening at all because of the incoherence of my debating "partner," this line was worth it.

It's an admission that I was right. We are moving to the Left culturally. But because the Left is good (and just wants "human rights") while the Right is bad (and just wants people to die in the streets or something) then we can just take for granted that any Leftwing victory is pure good with no possible objection and any Rightwing victory (real or imagined) is 1930s Germany all over again.

Unhinged stupid bullshit, yes. But that seems to be the growing consensus of how to think on the Left.

​I wisely turned to simply mocking him with a well-timed laughing emoji and turning his script around:
Sorry to tell you, but conservative ideas are quite often just muh freedom and loving 'Merica.​
Needless to say, the partisan disconnect in the United States is getting worse and dialogue is becoming more and more difficult. It's basically impossible with the likes of these people.
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How to Find a Bank to Refinance Your Properties

12/14/2020

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If you are thinking of buying a piece of property, you must look for a bank that offers you a good rate for long-term financing. As a matter of fact, you must secure long-term, low-leveraged debt to make real estate investing work for you.

Credit:Ensure that you do not have a bad credit record. If your credit isn’t great, it might be a good idea to partner up with someone who has a good credit record. You will need to get a job or a partner to ensure that you have good credit.
In addition, you need to focus on getting your accounting in order, especially if you are the owner of some other properties too. Jumbled up accounts can be troublesome.
Checklist:Below are the key items to look for when seeking a lender before you finalize the loan:
  • Interest Rate
  • Loan to Value
  • Amortization Rate
  • Term
  • Prepayment Penalty
  • Seasoning Period (for Refinances)
Ways to Find a Bank:It is really important that you find the right bank. Here are a few essential tips to find the perfect bank:
You must look for banks who are willing to lend to investors. Some of the best places to ask for referrals are:
  • Your local REIA (Real Estate Investor's Association)
  • Bigger Pockets Meetup
  • Other local real estate meetups you can find on Facebook or Meetup.com
Ask around and see what people have to say about the banks. Ask them about their experience, if they charge anything extra, any hidden charges, and how cooperative they are. Generally speaking, if they lend to other investors doing what you are, they will (likely) lend to you too.

For more, please subscribe to our YouTube channel.


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Elon Musk is Off to Texas

12/9/2020

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It's always nice to get that dopamine hit from having your biases confirmed. I got a lot of grief (although substantially more support than grief) for our video (and my BiggerPockets article) about why we're moving to California (so we can leave California). Well lookie here,
SpaceX and Tesla  CEO Elon Musk said Tuesday that he has moved to Texas, confirming months of speculation that the billionaire would leave California, a state of which he has become increasingly critical. Musk confirmed the move during an interview at the The Wall Street Journal’s CEO Council annual summit.

His remarks confirmed a CNBC report that Musk had told friends of his intent to move to Texas.
​
The move coincides with a number of SpaceX and Tesla-related projects in Texas, the sale of several of Musk’s Los Angeles homes as well as his disagreement with how California public officials have handled the COVID-19 pandemic.
So Elon Musk joins Joe Rogan, Tim Ferris, Graham Stephan and a bunch of others who are "leaving California" or have left. Given the insanity of California politics, I expect this trend to continue.

By the way, here isour video California:
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Is Urban Renewal a Myth? Are Suburbs Where it's At?

12/8/2020

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I found this article quite interesting, especially since it was written three years ago before Covid-19 started wrecking urban areas like New York and San Francisco. 

Basically, it would appear suburbs are where the growth is and urban areas are not,
In the last decade, about 90% of U.S. population growth has been in suburbs and exurbs, with CBDs accounting for .8% of growth and the entire urban corps for roughly 10%. In this span, population growth of some of the most alluring core cities — New York, Chicago, Philadelphia — has declined considerably. Manhattan and Brooklyn, have both seen their rate of growth decline by more than 85% since 2011. Nationally, core counties lost over 300,000 net domestic migrants In 2016 (with immigrants replacing some some of those departees), while their suburbs gained nearly 250,000.
Furthermore, suburbs aren't as bad as many make them out to be,
Dense urban living has been linked to many new diseases (including psychosis, cancer, and cardiovascular disease) over the past decade, and new research contradicts the old narrative some architectural and urbanists are still spreading about the supposed healthiness of city living. Research shows that proximity and exposure to parks and outside spaces is linked to better health outcomes and life expectancy — and that the best place for most people to have this is in suburbia, given how difficult and expensive it would be to dramatically expand park spaces in densely populated cities.
The author, Joel Kotkin, also makes the point that suburbs aren't as bad for the environment as many people think (more trees, open space, etc.).

I'm not a huge fan of the endless, sprawling suburbs. Commute times and their repetitious monotony is dreary. But Kotkin makes a good case. And especially with Covid-19's impact, I suspect surburbia to continue apace.
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New MAREI Articles

12/7/2020

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I've been writing a lot lately; on BiggerPockets, ThinkRealty, REI Club and The BiggerPockets Magazine (as well as posting videos on our YouTube channel). But I've also been writing some posts for MAREI, the Midwestern Association of Real Estate Investors website. 

Some of which include:

  • Is the Economy Going to Collapse? What Should Real Estate Investors Do?
  • How to Buy Portfolios of Houses
  • How to Manage Conflict with Tenants
  • Why Buy and Hold is the Best Investment Around
  • How to Manage Collections and Delinquency

So make sure to check some of those articles out and if you're in the Kansas City area, come join us at MAREI (although I think it's still virtual right now).

The articles also contain our YouTube videos, so make sure to check those out and subscribe to our channel as well.

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Due Diligence in Real Estate: Two Steps You Should Never Mess Up

12/6/2020

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One bad deal can cost you several good ones in the future, which is why it is best to get them right each time. To ensure this, you need to carry out due diligence properly to avoid a deal going wrong for you.

Forming a Process
There is a need for a process creation that will guide you on the necessary steps to take, and a standard checklist looks like this:
  • Pre-Offer Examination: This includes analyzing the area, estimating its value, and a rehabilitation estimate.
  • Post-Acceptance Due Diligence: This includes a deeper physical examination, financial analysis, legal procedures, and inspections.
  • Re-trading: This is asking for a discount if necessary.
  • Making the Final Decision: This is where you decide to pull the trigger or walk away.
The most important thing on this list is the second item, Post-Acceptance Due Diligence, because the first happens before an offer, and the third and fourth completely depend on the second.
If the house is rented out, then you need to get a copy of the lease, proof of deposit, rent ledger, and operating statement for the last year.

Physical Due Diligence
It doesn’t matter if you have walked the property before making an offer, you need to do it again and more thoroughly this time to get all the details. Check the utilities to see if they work or not and if you need to make adjustments to your rehab budget.

Inspections
It is recommended that new investors hire a third-party inspector. This can help with a re-trade too (if necessary) as it lends credibility to your request. Inspections can also show defects that you may have missed on your personal inspection. If you’re an experienced investor and have done a detailed walkthrough yourself, then you could consider foregoing a third-party inspection. But I would add a contingency to your budget for things you might have missed during the walk-through.

Conclusion
Bad deals can kill your momentum. Luckily, they can mostly be avoided by carrying out proper due diligence. So do it!



Previous Episodes
- How to Manage Collections and Delinquency
- How to Find Banks for Your Investment Properties
​- A Crash Course on Building a Buy and Hold Real Estate Business
- Is the Economy on the Edge of a Cliff??? How Should Real Estate Investors Respond?
- An Introduction Into Buying Portfolios
​-Why Buy and Hold is So Powerful
- In-House or Outhouse Management
- Doing Maintenance Right
​
- Moving to California?
-
What to Do When a Tenant Calls at 2:00 AM | A Guide to Emergency Maintenance



And don't forget to subscribe to our Youtube channel!


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My Article for BiggerPockets Magazine: Due Diligence Done Right

12/4/2020

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So as all five (?) of you who frequent this blog know, I write a lot for BiggerPockets. (You can see my archive of over 200 articles here.)  Well, last month (for the October/November) edition, I wrote a long, 4000+ word piece on due diligence titled "Due Diligence Done Right" for their new magazine. It's definitely worth checking out in my humble opinion:
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The piece covers much of the same ground I discussed in my long article from a few years back, but it's worth reading itself.

To subscribe to the BiggerPockets Magazine and get a digital copy of all the old copies here.

And P.S. I should have another article coming out (on buying portfolios) probably in January. So keep your eyes out for that one!
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    Andrew Syrios

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